TD Bank sees up to 25% drop in Canadian home prices by early 2023

TORONTO — A report by TD Bank suggests the average price of a home in Canada could fall 20 to 25 per cent from its peak seen earlier this year to the first quarter of 2023.

The report also estimates the number of home sales will fall 35 per cent over the same time period.

TD economist Rishi Sondhi says the projected price drop represents an unprecedented decline at least going as far back as the late 1980s, when the data began, but it follows an unequally unprecedented rise during the pandemic.

The report notes the drop in national home prices would only partially retrace the 46 per cent gain over the course of the pandemic.

As such, Sondhi writes that the forecast can be more aptly described as a recalibration of the market, instead of something more severe.

Long term, TD remains more positive on the outlook for housing because it says population growth should remain healthy, underpinning fundamental demand for housing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2022.

The Canadian Press